WEATHER UPDATE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE IRMA WARNING STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT TUE, SEP 5, 2017

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

..DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
175MPH WINDS…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ST KITTS, NEVIS, MONTSERRAT AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH ALL DISASTER PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER.

AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 380 MILES EAST OF ST.KITTS-NEVIS. IRMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE WNW TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF IRMA WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRMA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIRSIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT IRMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CAT 4 HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTRE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB OR 27.67 INCHES. BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, IRMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOW FURTHER SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IRMA REMAINS ON A PROJECTED PATH THAT BRINGS IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARDS THE WNW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD THERE BE ANY DELAY IN THIS SHIFT IN MOTION, IRMA COULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS POTENTIALLY MEANS EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THAN ANTICIPATED. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IRMA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO PASS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF IRMA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THIS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING AND WILL GET WORSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IRMA VERY CLOSELY.

REPEATING THE 5:00 AM ECT POSITION, 16.6 N, 57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937MB OR 27.67. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM ECT.

FORECASTER
BERNELL SIMON